Role of technologies in energy-related CO2 mitigation in China within a climate-protection world: A scenarios analysis using REMIND

In a world with the need of climate protection through emission reduction, China’s domestic mitigation will be put on the national agenda. The large-scale deployment of innovative technologies induced by climate policies is a key determinant for reducing emissions in an effective and efficient manner. A distinguishing feature of the Chinese energy sector (especially electricity generation), is that investment costs are significantly lower than in other world regions. Represented in the methodological framework of the augmented REMIND model, three promising mitigation technologies (also known as technology clusters) in the electricity sector: CCS with advanced coal-generation technologies, nuclear, and renewables are the focus of this study. The scenarios are designed to analyze the roles of these technologies and their associated economic impacts under a climate policy (i.e., a carbon tax). Our results indicate that: (1) Technology policies improving the techno-economic features of low-carbon technologies are insufficient to restrain China’s increasing emissions. (2) Carbon-pricing policies can effectively reduce emissions by making low-carbon options more competitive than conventional fossil fuel alternatives. In the global carbon tax regime framed in this paper, China’s mitigation potential is larger than that of any of other region and the peak of emissions occurs earlier (by 2020) and is 50% lower than in the BASE scenario. (3) CCS is important, but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited to the nearto midterm future. It is important to lower the cost of the carbon tax by supplying CCS technology; however, the gains from CCS for the ‘‘myopic’’ fossil fuel sectors are limited, compared to the case without CCS. Therefore, strong social support for CCS development should be implemented, if it is to be an effective mitigation option. (4) The cost of nuclear is a major determinant of the future development pattern in China’s power sec-